A month ago, Canada lost first place on the Virtual Medal Table to Norway. Read More
The month of March has reduced Canada’s medal count still further to 12 but the 34 medals Canada is expected to win pushes them into the race for most medals with Norway and Germany.
Canada’s short track skater Charles Hamelin lost his gold medal position in the 500m after being penalised during the heats at the World Championships which cost him a top eight place. The Canadian women’s team pursuit speed skaters were beaten three times by the Netherlands in March, most heavily at the World Championships and lost their projected gold in Sochi to the Dutch team. Two skicrossers from Canada, Christopher Del Bosco and Kelsey Serwa, both moved into minor medal positions from gold during March.
There was however, good news for Canada during March with five new potential medallists arriving to increase the forecast of Canada’s total medals from 29 to 34. The extra five medals come from freestyle skiing (three), snowboarding and a third medal for Charles Hamelin after his 1500m bronze at the World Championships.
The Netherlands are currently projected to finish in seventh place at the 2014 Winter Games, a rise of four places since the start of the 2012/2013 winter sports season. Read More
This improvement is primarily due to the number of projected gold medals rising from three to six.
Back in August 2012, the only Dutch gold medal prospects in the Virtual Medal Table were Sven Kramer (5000m), Bob de Jong (10000m) and the men’s team pursuit. That trio have held onto their projected gold medal positions but have been joined by Jan Smeekens (500m), Ireen Wüst (1500m) and the women’s team pursuit squad.
The expected Dutch medal count at next year’s Games has increased by one to 15 with almost everyone in a medal position in August 2012 holding onto their top three places. Sven Kramer has joined two compatriots in the top three of the 10000m for a potential Dutch medal sweep in that event and the aforementioned Jan Smeekens improved from fifth position in the 500m in the August VMT to gold now.
On the eve of the 2012/2013 winter sports season, the USA stood on top of the Virtual Medal Table for the 2014 Winter Games with Norway second and Canada third. Read More
All three have led the VMT over the last seven months but it is Norway who end the season in the lead.
Norway are now predicted to win 15 gold, 12 silver and 10 bronze medals at the 2014 Winter Games. No other NOC can better either the gold or medal totals projected for the Norwegians.
The Virtual Medal Table allocated 11 golds to Norway back in September 2012 and 10 of those remain in Norwegian virtual possession seven months later. Biathlete Tora Berger is shaping up to be the potential Norwegian star in 2014 as she is now the projected gold medallist in four events, an increase of two since the beginning of the winter season.
The other extra virtual gold medals for Norway are for alpine skier Aksel Lund Svindal in the downhill, the women’s 4x6km biathlon relay team and ski jumper Anders Bardal.
Using performances in all winter sports events with world class fields from the 2010 Olympic Games in Vancouver to the present day, we are able to produce a prediction of the results for the 2014 Olympic Games in Sochi if they were held tomorrow. This forecast is in the form of the top-8 in order for each of the medal events at the Games and an overall medal table.
The VMT is a statistical model based on results in Olympic Games, World Championships and World Cups (or equivalent). It takes account of the following: